It’s only three weeks into a fragile ceasefire, and Israel and Hamas are each ratcheting up allegations that the other party has violated the deal.

So far, 16 out of 33 hostages scheduled for release in the current phase of the agreement have been freed by Hamas, and 656 Palestinian prisoners from a list of nearly 2,000 have been released by Israel. But the weekly exchanges may now be disrupted after Hamas accused Israel of violating the agreement and said it would postpone Saturday’s hostage release “until further notice.”

Israel has hit back, with Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu saying late Tuesday that the Gaza ceasefire will end if Hamas does not release hostages as planned on Saturday.

“If Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon – the ceasefire will end, and the IDF will return to intense fighting until Hamas is completely defeated,” Netanyahu said in a video statement.

US President Donald Trump, whose envoy helped mediate the agreement along with officials from Egypt and Qatar, has suggested dismissing the multi-staged approach of the deal altogether and giving Hamas an ultimatum to release all the hostages at once.

Here’s what each side is saying, and where the deal could go from here:

Hamas says Israel violated the deal

On Monday, Hamas threatened to postpone the next hostage release, accusing Israel of violating the ceasefire deal by targeting Palestinians with gunfire in various parts of Gaza, delaying the return of displaced people to the heavily bombarded north, and not allowing the agreed humanitarian aid to enter the enclave.

The militant group also accused Israel of delaying the entry of essential medicines and hospital supplies, as well as not allowing tents, prefabricated houses, fuel, or rubble-removing machines into Gaza.

On Tuesday, the Gaza health ministry said that 92 people in the enclave had been killed in Israeli military operations since the ceasefire came into effect.

Abu Obeida, a spokesman for Hamas’ armed wing, said in a social media post on Monday: “We affirm our commitment to the terms of the agreement as long as the occupation commits to them.”

In a later statement, Hamas added that there was still an opportunity for the release to go forward as planned, saying that Israel has sufficient time “to fulfill its obligations.”

Israel says delay is ‘complete violation’ of deal

Hamas’ postponement is a “complete violation of the ceasefire agreement and the deal to release the hostages,” Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said Monday.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a meeting with his political and security cabinet on Tuesday, where they expected next steps.

Katz said he instructed the military to “prepare at the highest level of alert for any possible scenario in Gaza.” The Israeli military also said it was raising the level of readiness in southern Israel and that it would reinforce the area to enhance its “readiness for various scenarios.”

Those announcements also come after Israeli forces opened fire on Sunday in the eastern areas of Gaza City, close to the Gaza border, killing three Palestinians, Palestinian authorities said. The incident happened close to the border fence near Nahal Oz, an Israeli kibbutz, or agricultural commune. Following that incident, Katz said: “Anyone who enters the buffer zone, their blood is on their own head – zero tolerance for anyone who threatens IDF (Israel Defense Forces) forces or the fence area and communities.”

What did Trump say?

President Trump has urged Israel to “let all hell break out” and cancel the ceasefire and hostages deal if Hamas does not return those still being held in Gaza by Saturday.

“As far as I’m concerned, if all of the hostages aren’t returned by Saturday at 12 o’clock – I think it’s an appropriate time – I would say, cancel it and all bets are off and let hell break out,” the president told reporters in the Oval Office on Monday,

Trump added that all hostages ought to be returned, not two or three “in drips and drabs,” which is the phased manner of releases outlined in the deal.

Pressed on what “all hell” might entail in Gaza, Trump said, “You’ll find out, and they’ll find out – Hamas will find out what I mean.”

Trump and his Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff are part of the team that helped broker the ceasefire, which was finalized with cooperation between the Biden and Trump camps just before the new administration took office.

The US president went on to say that Palestinians would not have a right to return to Gaza under his plan to take US ownership of the enclave and rebuild it.

Trump also told reporters on Monday: “I think a lot of the hostages are dead.” At least 34 of the hostages are dead, according to Israel, though the true number is expected to be higher.

How likely is the ceasefire to hold?

In short, no one knows.

It took about a year of negotiations to reach the current deal. The first ceasefire, in November 2023, lasted about a week.

The current agreement is set up to progress in three distinct phases, the first of which is already halfway through.

As well as the release of 16 hostages so far, phase one has seen the entry of more humanitarian aid and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from parts of Gaza. The Israeli military has retained its presence along Gaza’s borders with Egypt and Israel.

Israel has to date released around a third of the nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners agreed for the exchange, some of them held without charge, and others facing life sentences.

Following Israel’s withdrawal from a key militarized zone dividing Gaza, Palestinians began returning to what’s left of their homes in the heavily bombarded north. The “overwhelming destruction of homes and communities in the north” has left people without viable shelter, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, which has said “the need for food, water, tents and shelter materials in that area remains critical.”

Meanwhile, negotiations for the second and third phases have barely started.

Netanyahu waited until last weekend – one week after a deadline for further ceasefire talks – to send his delegation to Qatar. Israeli media has speculated that he is simply running out the clock until phase one of the deal expires on March 1.

Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, a key member of Netanyahu’s coalition, has threatened to quit the government if Israel doesn’t return to war after the first phase of the truce.

Plastic tubes meander from Rosella’s nose to a nearby oxygen tank that’s bigger than she is, as she flicks through a book of her drawings: a flower, a house, a chicken.

The 9-year-old needs non-stop medical attention for the bone condition she was born with that has left her ribs pushing dangerously on her lungs, one of which is not working as it should.

Rosella and her mother are refugees living in one of nine remote camps dotted along Thailand’s mountainous border with Myanmar.

About 100,000 people live in the camps, having fled decades of fighting between the Myanmar military and ethnic minority rebel groups. The situation at the border has worsened in recent years by the junta’s coup and ensuing civil war.

Mae La is the biggest camp and its US-funded hospital is the only source of health care for more than 37,000 people living there – mostly from the ethnic Karen minority.

When the Trump administration ordered a 90-day freeze on almost all international aid, halting the US’ entire global development network overnight, the camp hospital was forced to shut its doors, sending shock waves through the refugee community.

Video posted by refugees on social media showed patients at the center being lifted from their hospital beds and carried out in hammocks covered in blankets.

Rosella was moved to a nearby improvised health center, along with other patients with chronic conditions. But there are no longer any doctors to treat her.

Numerous aid workers in northern Thailand described widespread panic and confusion following the sudden suspension of aid, especially among those whose work provides life-saving services to some of the world’s most vulnerable and impoverished people on both sides of the border.

“We have never faced a problem like this before,” said Saw Bweh Say, secretary of the Karen Refugee Committee, which represents refugees in the Thai camps.

Anxiety over medicine and food

Refugees in the Thai border camps live a fragile and isolated existence.

They cannot legally work and need a permit to even leave the camp. The Thai government considers the camps temporary settlements, but some communities have been there for generations.

Basic services such as health care, education, sanitation, water and food are provided by international aid donors. In Mae La, and six other camps, those funds come almost entirely from the US – the world’s largest aid donor – through the International Rescue Committee.

Though the camp hospitals are more akin to field clinics, with tin roofs and intermittent power, they are the only source of health care for tens of thousands of people.

“If it’s an emergency, how can we face the situation? That burdens a lot of people here,” said Ni Ni, 62, who has heart failure and kidney disease.

For some, it’s already too late. In nearby Umpiem camp, an elderly lady with breathing problems died after she could not access supplemental oxygen due to the hospital closure, an IRC spokesperson said.

An IRC spokesperson said they had to start shutting outpatient departments and other facilities in the camps following the stop-work order. Management of the medical facilities, equipment and water system has been transferred to Thai authorities and camp commanders, though the IRC continues to source medicine and fuel using non-US funds.

Teams of refugee medics, midwives and nurses are working round-the-clock helping to plug the gaps, while families scramble for alternative treatment for their loved ones.

“Karen families donated medicine and oxygen tanks, but that’s not enough,” said Pim Kerdsawang, an independent NGO worker in the border city of Mae Sot.

Compounding their concerns is the cost of food. Feeding more than 100,000 refugees across all nine camps for one month costs $1.3 million dollars, and the organization that provides the food and cooking fuel says it has only enough money to last for a month and a half.

Refugees use a food card system to buy items in the camp shops, which is paid for by The Border Consortium. The food and cooking fuel are funded by State Department’s Bureau of Population, Refugees, and Migration (PRM), the group said.

“The main concern is not having the means to provide the refugees with food and cooking fuel. So far, there is no alternative to the US grant,” said Leon de Riedmatten, executive director of The Border Consortium.

The organization has started prioritizing the most vulnerable refugees who have no income of their own, Riedmatten said, as the aid freeze and continuous arrival of new refugees fleeing violence in Myanmar drains the funds.

Thai hospitals bear the brunt

When Tawatchai Yingtaweesak heard the camp hospitals had shut, his team raced to see how they could help.

Tawatchai is director of the Tha Song Yang hospital, about a 30-minute drive from sprawling Mae La.

With no doctors on duty in the camps, his hospital and several others have stepped in to treat refugees with serious and emergency conditions.

Tawatchai said suddenly closing the US-funded hospital was “dangerous” and, since the aid freeze, his facility has taken in between 20 and 30 refugee patients.

He is working with camp medics and helping to deliver oxygen, among other supplies, but says this can only be a temporary fix. His hospital serves about 100,000 people and while they can cope, he worries that this year’s rainy season will overwhelm them.

Typically starting around June, the monsoon is “high season for disease,” Tawatchai said, with a surge in mosquito-borne diseases and children with pneumonia.

Naw Mary, 32, was rushed to the maternity ward at Tha Song Yang on Sunday, suffering from high blood pressure. Far from her family and home at the camp, she was about to give birth to her first child.

“They said it was risky to deliver a child in the camp without a doctor and facilities so they referred me to this hospital,” Naw Mary said.

Nervous and excited to bring her baby into the world, Naw Mary also said she’s concerned about follow-up care for her newborn and herself.

“Why did they have to stop helping the refugees?” she asked.

‘Those who are really in need’

The pain created by the US aid freeze goes beyond the refugee camps.

They include cuts to vaccine, education and resettlement programs, domestic violence shelters, anti-human-trafficking initiatives, safe houses for dissidents, and help for displaced people.

For more than 30 years, the Mae Tao clinic near Mae Sot has been a lifeline for vulnerable and impoverished migrants from Myanmar. The clinic handles almost 500 patients a day, and 20% of its funding comes from the US.

Now that funding has been put on hold, the clinic has to reallocate part of its budget so their health care services are not impacted.

“This fund we only use for vulnerable people and those who are really in need,” said Saw Than Lwin, deputy director of organization and development at Mae Tao.

Nearby the clinic, aid workers with the Burma Children Medical Fund load boxes of supplies containing food, infant formula baby milk powder, medicine, and eye screening kits, into a van.

It’s headed across the Moei River, a border between Thailand and Myanmar, to help thousands of people just kilometers away displaced by Myanmar military airstrikes and ground attacks.

The needs in Myanmar are huge, aid workers say, where millions of people struggle with hunger, trauma and the constant threat of attacks.

“The places that we’re working in are the remotest areas in all of Burma, very hard to reach communities without other alternatives to medical assistance,” said Salai Za Uk Ling, founder of the Chin Human Rights Organization.

About 30% of CHRO’s funding comes from the USAID and the group, which provides medical and mental health care to tens of thousands of people in Myanmar’s northwest, has had to cut vital services and lay off staff in the past three weeks.

“Rural communities, people who are living in displaced situation, don’t know a whole lot about international politics, all they care about is their daily survival,” Za Uk said.

“How do we even begin to explain to them why this is happening?”

In Myanmar’s Kayah state, also known as Karenni, the aid suspension has meant teachers’ salaries cannot be paid, leaving kids without education, said Banya Khung Aung, founder and director of the Karenni Human Rights Group.

If they had more notice, groups like his could have sourced alternative funding, he said.

Waivers not being processed

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has claimed the US is continuing to provide lifesaving humanitarian aid. Rubio, now the acting administrator of USAID, reiterated last week that he had issued a blanket waiver for lifesaving programs.

“If it’s providing food or medicine or anything that is saving lives and is immediate and urgent, you’re not included in the freeze. I don’t know how much more clear we can be than that,” Rubio said, questioning the competency of organizations that haven’t applied for a waiver.

Even if funds are made available after the 90-day freeze, “who would then communicate to us or be knowledgeable enough to process what is left of the system?” asked Za Uk from CHRO.

“By time that any funding reaches us, unfortunately for those suffering from serious medical condition might be lost.”

In his January 20 executive order, President Donald Trump said the “US foreign aid industry” serves to “destabilize world peace” and is “in many cases antithetical to American values.”

But those affected in northern Thailand are some of the world’s most vulnerable people who rely on US aid to survive.

In Mae La camp, Rosella can’t stray far from her oxygen tank. She needs one tank every two days, her mother said.

Complicating their family’s situation is that Rebecca is five months pregnant. She used to get her ultrasounds and prenatal care at the hospital, but that has all stopped as well.

“I don’t know what to do. There are no doctors to go and see right now for this pregnancy,” she said.

“I’m worried for my daughter and this pregnancy, worried for everyone.”

A couple who bought a London mansion for £32,500,000 ($40,200,000) have been told by a court that they can hand the property back and recoup most of their costs after the house was found to have a huge moth infestation.

Situated on one of the quiet leafy streets just outside Notting Hill, Horbury Villa seemed like the perfect northwest London home. But behind its grand Victorian façade, a colony of moths living in the insulation wreaked havoc across the house, which contains a pool, spa, gym, cinema and wine room.

Iya Patarkatsishvili, the daughter of a Georgian billionaire, and her husband Yevhen Hunyak bought the house in May 2019 from William Woodward-Fisher, a surveyor and residential real estate developer, according to the judgment published Monday.

However, the couple said that once they moved in they found moths on their toothbrushes, towels and wine glasses. The insects also caused damage to their clothes, some of which were thrown away.

At one point, Hunyak said he would kill between 10 and 35 moths every day, while his family and cleaners did the same.

A judge has found in the couple’s favor, ruling that Woodward-Fisher made “fraudulent misrepresentations” and “concealed a serious clothes moth infestation of the insulation in the house” before the sale, according to a press summary of the judgment, published Monday.

Mr Justice Fancourt ruled that Woodward-Fisher had falsely answered three queries before selling the house, including by saying that he didn’t know of any vermin infestation or of any hidden defect in the property.

According to the judgment, Woodward-Fisher’s wife had noticed a problem with clothes moths (Tineola Bisselliella) in early 2018 after new insulation was installed as part of major building works. The help of extermination specialists was enlisted to deal with the problem. She then forwarded some of these emails about the infestation to her husband Woodward-Fisher, the judgment said.

Fancourt noted in his judgment that he didn’t think Woodward-Fisher was “consciously trying to deceive the Claimants. He simply wanted to sell the house and move on.”

As well as granting Patarkatsishvili and Hunyak most of their money back, minus an amount to take into account the period they lived there, Fancourt also awarded them “substantial damages” and all the costs they incurred trying to get rid of the moths.